2008–present

Shrinking and ageing Japan

Japan's population peaks around 2008 and begins to shrink; births fall to record lows and nearly three in ten people are 65 or older.

Vital Statistics of Japan, 2024 (preliminary annual estimates) — Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Government of Japan (2025)
Population Estimates (as of October 1, 2024) — Statistics Bureau of Japan, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (2025)
Population Projections for Japan (2023 revision): 2021 to 2070 — National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, IPSS (2023)
2023 Housing and Land Survey: preliminary results — Statistics Bureau of Japan, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (2024)

Well established social changedemographyeconomy

Japan’s population peaked at about 128 million around 2008 and has fallen every year since; by October 2024 it was about 123.8 million. In 2024 only 686,061 babies were born to Japanese nationals, the lowest since records began in 1899, and the total fertility rate fell to 1.15. About 29 percent of people are 65 or older, the highest share of any major country.

Vital Statistics of Japan, 2024 (preliminary annual estimates) — Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Government of Japan (2025)
Population Estimates (as of October 1, 2024) — Statistics Bureau of Japan, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (2025)

Government researchers project the population could fall to about 87 million by 2070, around one in ten of them foreign residents.

Population Projections for Japan (2023 revision): 2021 to 2070 — National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, IPSS (2023)

Young people cite long working hours, job insecurity, high costs of raising children and expectations that women shoulder housework and care. The 2023 housing survey counted about nine million vacant homes, akiya.

2023 Housing and Land Survey: preliminary results — Statistics Bureau of Japan, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (2024)
Japan in Transformation, 1945–2010 (2nd edition) — Jeff Kingston, Pearson (2011)

Japan has cautiously opened to more foreign workers, a big shift for a country long wary of immigration.

Why it matters today

Japan

Demographic decline touches every part of life: empty rural villages and abandoned houses, schools closing, labour shortages, a strained pension system, and quiet debates about immigration, work culture and the pressures on women. It is one of Japan's defining challenges.